Tool

Procurement Risk Calculator

Ten questions that grade a major purchase by the risk it actually carries, from switching difficulty to vendor dependency, and tell you how much independent review it deserves before signature.

Not every contract deserves the same scrutiny, and treating them all alike means the dangerous ones get the same review as the routine ones. Answer for the specific purchase in front of you; the calculation is fixed-point and runs entirely in your browser.

Last reviewed 3 July 2026 · Free and ungated

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Independent review does its best work while the terms are still drafts. Put the shortlist to the Global Board and selected senior operators who have bought, run and exited comparable contracts will report back confidentially.

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How a client brief works · What you receive

Fixed questions · no AI · nothing stored

Run the scorecard

Answer for this specific contract as it will actually be signed, not as it was originally scoped.

0–34 Low review priority 35–64 Moderate review priority 65–100 High review priority How our tools are scored
  1. Contract value How much is committed over the life of the contract, including likely extensions?
    • Small relative to the budget it sits in
    • Significant, but not among the largest this year
    • One of the largest commitments the organisation will make this year
  2. Contract duration How long are you committed before a genuine exit point?
    • Under a year, with a clean exit
    • One to three years, with review points
    • Multi-year, with limited break clauses
  3. Business criticality What actually stops if this vendor fails?
    • A failure would be an inconvenience
    • A failure would disrupt one function
    • A failure would disrupt core operations or revenue
  4. Switching difficulty If this goes badly, how hard is it to move away?
    • An alternative could be substituted quickly
    • Switching would take months and management attention
    • Switching would take years or a full re-implementation
  5. Vendor dependency How embedded does this vendor become in how you operate?
    • One of several suppliers we could use interchangeably
    • Important to us, but not woven into daily operations
    • Embedded in our processes, data or ways of working
  6. Internal experience with similar projects Has the organisation bought and run something like this before?
    • We have bought and operated something comparable
    • Some experience, but at a smaller scale or scope
    • This is the first purchase of its kind for us
  7. Number of stakeholders How many functions, sites or regions does this touch?
    • One function owns the outcome end to end
    • Two or three functions must coordinate
    • Many functions, sites or regions are affected
  8. Implementation complexity What does it take to get from signature to working?
    • Largely configuration of a proven product
    • Meaningful integration with existing systems
    • Heavy customisation across multiple systems and processes
  9. Level of uncertainty How settled are the requirements this contract is priced against?
    • Requirements are stable and well understood
    • Mostly clear, with some open questions
    • Requirements are still moving while terms are negotiated
  10. Existing independent review Who outside the buying team has examined this deal?
    • The case has been challenged by independent outsiders
    • Reviewed internally, outside the buying team
    • No one outside the buying team has examined it
Reading the score

What the result bands mean

0–34: Low review priority

On these answers the commercial exposure is contained: the commitment is modest, exit is realistic and the organisation has bought this kind of thing before. Formal independent review is unlikely to be the best use of anyone's time here.

35–64: Moderate review priority

This purchase carries real dependency or complexity in specific areas, even if the headline value looks manageable. Contracts in this band are where organisations most often skip review, because nothing about the deal looks alarming until it is signed.

65–100: High review priority

The combination of value, dependency and complexity makes this one of the purchases most likely to be regretted. The risk is not only vendor selection. It is execution dependency after the contract is signed, when the balance of power shifts to the supplier.

Where procurement risk actually concentrates

The purchases that damage organisations are rarely the biggest ones, which get scrutiny automatically. They are the mid-sized contracts that combine long duration, deep embedding and a first-time buying team: a mid-market manufacturer weighing two ERP quotes carries more real exposure than a far larger deal for a substitutable commodity. Value is only one of ten factors here, and often not the decisive one.

When to run the calculator

The most useful moment is after shortlisting and before final negotiation, when the requirements are real but the terms are still movable. Run it again if the scope changes materially during negotiation, because a contract that grows a systems-integration tail or doubles its duration is no longer the purchase you originally assessed.

Who should score the purchase

  • Procurement leaders deciding where to spend limited review capacity across a pipeline of deals.
  • Budget owners about to sign a contract their function has never bought before.
  • CFOs and finance business partners asked to approve a purchase they had no part in shaping.

What the number means

Each answer contributes 0, 5 or 10 points towards a risk total normalised to 100, where higher means more reason for independent review before signature. The bands are deliberately about review priority rather than deal quality: a high score does not say the purchase is wrong, it says signing it unexamined would be.

Frequently asked questions

A trusted vendor is proposing the deal. Does the score still apply?

Yes, and arguably more so. Trust built on previous contracts tends to lower scrutiny exactly when a new deal changes the shape of the dependency. Score the contract in front of you, not the relationship behind it.

Should a high score delay the procurement?

Not necessarily. A high score argues for depth of review, which can often run in parallel with negotiation. What it argues against is letting the signature date determine how much challenge the deal receives.

Why does independent review appear as a risk factor?

Because the absence of outside challenge compounds every other risk. A complex, embedded, multi-year deal that no one outside the buying team has examined carries the buying team's blind spots straight into the contract.

The leverage disappears at signature. Use it first.

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