Why deal risk hides in plain sight
Acquisitions generate their own momentum: advisers are paid on completion, executives have announced intent, and the deal team has spent months learning to want the target. In that environment, risks are not concealed so much as reclassified: attrition becomes a synergy opportunity, cultural distance becomes complementary strengths. A fixed scorecard is useful precisely because it does not attend the deal meetings.
When in the deal to score it
Run it first before exclusivity, when walking away is still cheap, and again before the final board approval, when diligence has replaced assumptions with findings. The movement between the two scores tells its own story: risk that grows as you learn more about the target is the market's way of revising the price, whether or not the deal model agrees.
Who should complete it
- Board members and non-executives preparing to approve, condition or refuse a deal.
- Corporate development teams checking their own conviction against a fixed yardstick.
- CFOs weighing the valuation against the risks the model treats as footnotes.
How scoring translates to risk
Each answer contributes 0, 5 or 10 points to a total normalised to 100, where higher means more embedded risk. Three bands map the result. The scale is deliberately blunt: it cannot weigh one risk against another, but it reliably shows whether risk is accumulating faster than the deal narrative admits.