Tool

M&A Decision Risk Score

Ten questions that measure where an acquisition is carrying risk, from synergy confidence to diligence completeness, while the terms can still reflect the answers.

Score the deal currently on the table, at its current stage, with its current terms. The questions and point values are fixed, nothing you answer is stored, and the same answers always return the same risk profile.

Last reviewed 3 July 2026 · Free and ungated

Review this before committing

Operators who have led acquisitions, and lived with the integrations that followed, sit on the Global Board. A confidential client brief puts this deal in front of them before signature.

Review this before committing

How a client brief works · What you receive

Fixed questions · no AI · nothing stored

Run the scorecard

Answer for this deal as it stands today, not as the deal team expects it to look at signing.

0–34 Lower risk 35–64 Moderate risk 65–100 High risk How our tools are scored
  1. Strategic rationale clarity Would the reason for this deal survive a sceptical board?
    • The rationale is specific, quantified and consistently told
    • The headline is clear, but it thins under questioning
    • The rationale shifts depending on who explains it
  2. Integration complexity How much must actually be merged for the deal to work?
    • Largely standalone, with light integration
    • Meaningful integration in some functions
    • Deep integration across systems, teams and customers
  3. Cultural fit How differently do the two organisations actually work?
    • Working styles are similar and were tested during the deal
    • Differences are known, but there is no plan for them
    • Distinct cultures, and nobody has examined the collision
  4. Customer overlap What happens to shared customers after completion?
    • Little overlap; the customer bases are complementary
    • Some shared customers, with attrition risk unquantified
    • Heavy overlap where customers may consolidate spend or leave
  5. Technology overlap Do the platforms complement each other or compete?
    • Stacks are complementary or easily kept separate
    • Some duplication, with a plausible migration path
    • Competing platforms where one must be retired
  6. Leadership alignment Is the board and executive team genuinely behind this deal?
    • Aligned on the deal, the price and the walk-away point
    • Supportive, with reservations that were never resolved
    • The deal is dividing the board or the executive team
  7. Synergy confidence Where did the synergy number actually come from?
    • Built bottom-up, owned by named leaders, deliberately modest
    • Top-down estimates with partial functional support
    • The number was set to justify the price, before diligence
  8. Downside scenario Has anyone modelled this deal going wrong?
    • A failure case is modelled and reflected in the price
    • The downside has been discussed, but never modelled
    • No serious downside case exists
  9. Regulatory risk Could approval processes reshape or block the deal?
    • No meaningful approvals or conditions expected
    • Approvals needed, with clear precedent for clearance
    • Approval is uncertain, or could carry heavy conditions
  10. Due diligence completeness How much of the target have you actually examined?
    • Complete across financial, legal, commercial and technical
    • Core areas done; commercial or technical still open
    • Diligence is compressed, or still running while terms are agreed
Reading the score

What the result bands mean

0–34: Lower risk

On these answers the deal logic is specific, the integration burden is contained and diligence has done its work. That combination lowers the odds of the classic failure modes, though acquirers do tend to score their own deals generously.

35–64: Moderate risk

The deal carries concentrated risk in identifiable areas rather than general fragility. Deals in this band complete successfully and then underperform, because the risks visible at signing were priced as manageable and never actively managed.

65–100: High risk

This profile combines several of the factors that most reliably destroy deal value: a shifting rationale, deep integration, contested alignment, or diligence compressed to protect the timetable. At this level the burden of proof should sit with proceeding, not with hesitating.

Why deal risk hides in plain sight

Acquisitions generate their own momentum: advisers are paid on completion, executives have announced intent, and the deal team has spent months learning to want the target. In that environment, risks are not concealed so much as reclassified: attrition becomes a synergy opportunity, cultural distance becomes complementary strengths. A fixed scorecard is useful precisely because it does not attend the deal meetings.

When in the deal to score it

Run it first before exclusivity, when walking away is still cheap, and again before the final board approval, when diligence has replaced assumptions with findings. The movement between the two scores tells its own story: risk that grows as you learn more about the target is the market's way of revising the price, whether or not the deal model agrees.

Who should complete it

  • Board members and non-executives preparing to approve, condition or refuse a deal.
  • Corporate development teams checking their own conviction against a fixed yardstick.
  • CFOs weighing the valuation against the risks the model treats as footnotes.

How scoring translates to risk

Each answer contributes 0, 5 or 10 points to a total normalised to 100, where higher means more embedded risk. Three bands map the result. The scale is deliberately blunt: it cannot weigh one risk against another, but it reliably shows whether risk is accumulating faster than the deal narrative admits.

Frequently asked questions

Does a high score mean we should abandon the deal?

No. It means the deal should proceed only with the high-scoring risks named, owned and priced. Some of the best acquisitions score high at first pass; the difference is that disciplined acquirers make the score fall before they sign.

Our advisers have modelled the deal extensively. Why score it again?

Adviser models are strongest on valuation and weakest on the questions here: culture, alignment, rationale drift. They are also produced by parties paid on completion, which is not a criticism, but is a reason for one measure that carries no fee interest.

Can the target company be scored with this as well?

The questions are written for the acquiring side, but a seller can invert them usefully: a buyer with shifting rationale, contested alignment and compressed diligence is a completion risk for the seller too.

Deal momentum is not evidence. Test the deal against people who have done it.

Review this before committing