Estimate the value a delayed decision forfeits by combining the opportunity value, its probability of success and the months of delay.
Deferring a decision feels free because nothing is signed and nothing is spent. This calculator puts a number on the deferral itself: enter the value of the opportunity, the probability it would succeed, and how many months it is being delayed.
Last reviewed 3 July 2026 · Free and ungated
Now that the cost of waiting has a number, the question is whether it buys information or just delay. A complimentary first report puts that question to selected senior operators from the Global Board who have faced the same timing call.
Pressure-test this decisionOpportunity cost = value × probability % × (months delayed ÷ 12). How our tools work
The calculation takes the annual value of the opportunity, weights it by the probability it would actually be captured, and scales it by the share of a year being lost to delay. It is an expected-value estimate of the deferral, not of the opportunity itself: a way of putting "let's revisit next quarter" on the same page as the costs everyone can already see.
A market expansion is expected to be worth €600,000 a year if it works, and the team puts the probability of success at 50%. The executive committee defers the decision by six months. The estimated cost of that deferral is €600,000 × 50% × (6 ÷ 12) = €150,000. Nobody will ever see that number on an invoice, which is precisely why it loses every argument against a visible €40,000 of project cost.
Do not present the output as a fact; present it as a range. Run the calculation at the sponsor's probability and at the sceptic's, and put both against the cost of deciding now. If even the pessimistic case dwarfs the cost of proceeding carefully, the deferral is the expensive option, and the burden of proof belongs on waiting, not acting.
This is a framing device, not a forecast. It ignores discounting, competitive dynamics and the option value of waiting, and it is only as good as a probability that no one can verify. Its purpose is to stop deferral being treated as the risk-free default.
From evidence where it exists (pilot results, comparable launches, signed letters of intent) and from a range where it does not. If the sponsor and the sceptic cannot get within twenty points of each other, that gap is the real finding.
No. It means the delay has a price and should be justified the way any spend is justified. If waiting buys evidence that materially changes the probability, it may be the best purchase available.
Use the annual run-rate value once established, since the formula scales by months of a year. For opportunities with a hard closing window, the simple model understates the cost: a missed window forfeits every year, not a fraction of one.